What is the short-term trend of iron ore prices?

This article analyzes from the following aspects. First, the fundamental problem of iron ore itself is still in short supply, inventory depletion, and the continuous shipping problem leads to the continued backward movement of accumulating nodes; second, the core problem of scrap steel, the price is too strong Compared with iron ore, it is more cost-effective, and at the same time, the production of electric furnace cost loss and short process cannot be recovered.

From the perspective of the fundamentals of iron ore itself, the overall shipment volume is not high, and the extension of the shipping schedule has reduced the proportion of shipments to China, resulting in a delay in the arrival of the port volume. Specifically, June was at the end of the fiscal year for BHP and FMG mines, but due to the weather conditions in Australia, the shipment volume was not high. If the weather improves in the mid-to-late ten days, there is still an impulse probability, but from the perspective of their own fiscal year plans, there is not much pressure to complete the target; Rio Tinto has recently undergone a lot of port maintenance, and at the same time, the production capacity replacement project has not been released. The shipment volume was at the lowest position in the same period; the VALE mine was affected by the flood in the early stage, the shipment volume was not high, and the proportion of shipments to China was low. From the perspective of non-mainstream mines, India has entered the rainy season, and shipments will also decline, and Ukrainian shipments have not recovered.

As we all know, the profit of steel mills in the early stage has reached the edge of profit and loss, and some steel mills have already lost money, but they still have not reduced production. It will not take the initiative to take this step. At the same time, the price of coke in the early stage has fallen. The coking plant will benefit the steel mill, and it will also give the steel mill a chance to breathe. continued to climb.

Based on sound fundamentals, with low arrivals to ports and high sparse ports, imported iron ore inventories continued to deplete, and the disk was at a deep discount. Of course, this has already been reflected in the price, and everyone’s balance sheet can be launched. At least by the middle of the year, iron ore will go to the warehouse. It was only a few points that exceeded expectations, so it brought a strong rise in iron ore. One is that I didn’t expect the port to be so high and the arrival to the port so low, resulting in a fast depot and a larger than expected amount of depot; the second is the problem of delivery, non-mainstream shipping is not high, and it is expected that Australia will be available in June in the early stage. The rebound in shipments has brought about a slowdown in the rate of inventory reduction or a slight accumulation of inventory in the middle and late June. At present, this time point is expected to continue in the future.


Post time: Jun-08-2022